Roberto Duncan Picks


Associate Professor
of Economics


Inflation dynamics and forecasting

Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study
(with Enrique Martínez-García and Patricia Toledo)
[Paper] [Working paper]

Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?
(with Enrique Martínez-García; accepted in the Journal of Forecasting)
[Article] [Working paper]

Flexible Average Inflation Targeting: How Much Is U.S. Monetary Policy Changing?
(with Jarod Coulter and Enrique Martínez-García; Economia)
[Article] [Working paper]

Forecasting Food Price Inflation during Global Crises
(with Patricia Toledo)

New Perspectives on Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Market Economies: An Empirical Assessment
(with Enrique Martínez-García; International Journal of Forecasting)
[Article] [Working paper] [My coauthor talking about the paper (video)] [A VoxEU Post]

Development and Health Economics

Long-run Overweight Levels and Convergence in Body Mass Index
(with Patricia Toledo; Economics & Human Biology)
[Article] [Paper]

Do Overweight and Obesity Prevalence Rates Converge in Europe?
(with Patricia Toledo; Research in Economics)
[Article] [Paper]

Inequality in Body Mass Indices across Countries: Evidence from Convergence Tests
(with Patricia Toledo; Economics & Human Biology)
[Article] [Paper]

Regional Convergence in Chile: New Tests, Old Results
(with Rodrigo Fuentes; Latin American Journal of Economics (Cuadernos de Economía))

The Cyclicality of Macroeconomic Policies and Volatility

Do Good Institutions Promote Countercyclical Macroeconomic Policies?
(with César Calderón and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics)
[Article] [Final version (includes Supplementary Appendix)]

Institutional Quality, the Cyclicality of Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Volatility
(Journal of Macroeconomics)
[Article] [Working paper version in Ideas] [Supplementary Appendix]

A Simple Model to Teach Business Cycle Macroeconomics for Emerging Market and Developing Economies
(Journal of Economic Education)
[Article] [Supplementary Appendix] [Related Working Paper in Ideas]

The Role of Credibility in the Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies: Evidence for Emerging Economies
(with César Calderón and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel; Review of World Economics)
[Article] [Working paper version in Ideas]

Global Imbalances and the US Current Account Deficit

Does the US Current Account Show a Symmetric Behavior over the Business Cycle?
(International Review of Economics and Finance)
[Article] [Working paper version in Ideas]

A Threshold Model of the US Current Account
(Economic Modelling)
[Article] [Working paper version in Ideas] [An Econbrowser Post]

Financial Liberalization, Low World Interest Rates, and Global Imbalances: A Note with a Simple Two-Country Model
(Applied Economics Letters)